Unraveling the Complexities of Futures Market

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Delve into the world of futures trading with the "Futures Fundamental Analysis" course, designed for beginners. This course is an insightful journey into understanding how fundamental analysis, a cornerstone in financial markets, is crucial in determining the model price of a futures contract. The course meticulously unravels the intricacies of various economic factors and their impact on the futures market, offering a comprehensive understanding for both new and experienced traders.
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Belangrijkste punten van de cursus:

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• Inleiding tot fundamentele analyse: Legt uit hoe fundamentele analyse, die vaak wordt gebruikt in de aandelenbeleg, ook van toepassing is op futurescontracten.
• Fundamentele versus technische analyse: Bespreekt de verschillende aspecten waarmee beleggers rekening houden bij de beleg in futures, van grafiektrends tot de vraag naar grondstoffen.
• Vraag en aanbod in futures: Onderzoekt de cruciale rol van vraag en aanbod bij het bepalen van de prijzen van futurescontracten.
• Fundamentals in Equity Index Futures: Richt zich op unieke fundamentele factoren die de prijs van aandelenindexfutures beïnvloeden.
• Analyse van energiefutures: Onderzoekt de verschillende eindgebruiken van energieproducten en hun invloed op de prijsvorming van futures.
• Inzicht in rentefutures: Biedt een overzicht van verschillende rentefutures, van korte tot lange looptijden.
• Forex en FX Futures Fundamentals: Omvat de beleg in termijncontracten die valutarelaties op de forexmarkt vertegenwoordigen.
• Onderzoek van landbouwfutures: Analyseert factoren die de prijsbeweging van agrarische grondstoffen zoals granen en vee beïnvloeden.
• Metals Futures Analysis: Investigates the factors affecting the future prices of metals like gold and silver.
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Aan het einde van de cursus "Futures Fundamental Analysis" hebben deelnemers een solide basis gelegd in het begrijpen van de elementen die de futuresprijzen bepalen. Deze cursus biedt de nodige hulpmiddelen om marktgegevens effectief te analyseren en te interpreteren, zodat beleggers beter geïnformeerde beslissingen kunnen nemen in de dynamische wereld van de futuresbeleg. Het is een essentieel opleidingstraject voor iedereen die zijn kennis en vaardigheden op het gebied van futuresmarktanalyse wil verdiepen.

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‍FAQ

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1) How is a futures contract’s “fair value” determined?

It starts with today’s market price of the asset. Then you add costs for holding it (like financing or storage) and subtract any income it produces (like dividends or rent) until the contract ends. For stock index futures, the main factors are interest rates and dividends.

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2) What do contango, backwardation, and basis tell me?

These describe the relationship between futures prices and today’s price (spot price).

‍Contango: futures cost more than today’s price, often because of storage or financing costs.

‍Backwardation: futures cost less than today’s price, often because supply is tight right now.

‍Basis: the difference between futures and today’s price, which usually shrinks as the contract gets closer to expiry.

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3) Which fundamentals should I track by asset class?

‍Stock indexes: dividends, interest rates, company earnings, and share buybacks.

‍Energy (oil, gas): stockpiles, OPEC decisions, refinery activity, and weather.

‍Interest rates: central bank policies, inflation, and government bond sales.

‍Currencies: differences in interest rates, trade balances, and imports/exports.

‍Agriculture: crop progress, government reports, weather, and export demand.

‍Metals: mining supply, industrial demand, and investor buying or selling.

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4) How do I manage rolls and what is roll yield?

• In contango, rolling usually costs you money because later contracts are more expensive.

• In backwardation, rolling can make you money because later contracts are cheaper. Most traders roll when trading activity is highest to avoid problems with liquidity.

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5) What are the key risks in fundamentals-based futures trading?

The main risks are: using borrowed money (leverage), sudden changes in costs or supply, surprise data releases, problems near contract expiry (like forced delivery), low trading activity when rolling, position size limits, and differences between the hedge and the real exposure.

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